China Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery ›› 2026, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 34-39.doi: 10.19438/j.cjoms.2026.01.006

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Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for medical device-related pressure injury in ICU patients with indwelling artificial airway

Chen Xinyu1, Wang Zhiwei2, Yang Gong1, Yu Zhaoxia2   

  1. 1. Department of Critical Care Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University. Urumqi 830011;
    2. School of Nursing, Xinjiang Medical University. Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China
  • Received:2025-02-19 Revised:2025-04-30 Published:2026-02-06

Abstract: PURPOSE: To explore the influencing factors of medical device related pressure injury (MDRPI) in ICU patients with indwelling artificial airways and construct a risk nomogram prediction model. METHODS: A total of 537 ICU patients with indwelling artificial airways in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January to October 2023 were selected as the research objects. The relevant clinical data of the patients were collected, and logistic regression was used to screen the independent risk factors for MDRPI. A nomogram prediction model was established and internally validated. RESULTS: Among the 537 patients, 169(31.47%) developed MDRPI. Logistic regression analysis showed that age, ICU type (cardiac surgery), IL-6, history of diabetes, and use of vasoactive drugs were independent risk factors (OR> 1, P<0.05), while higher scores of friction/shear force were protective factors (OR<1, P< 0.05). The nomogram model constructed based on the above influencing factors showed good calibration(P=0.774) and discrimination(AUC=0.886, 95%CI: 0.857-0.915). The calibration curve and decision curve indicated good consistency and benefit of the model. CONCLUSIONS: The risk prediction model for MDRPI in ICU patients with indwelling artificial airways constructed in this study has high predictive value, which can provide a reference for clinical early identification of high-risk patients and formulation of intervention measures.

Key words: ICU, Artificial airway, Medical device related pressure injury, Prediction model

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