中国口腔颌面外科杂志

中国口腔颌面外科杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 34-39.doi: 10.19438/j.cjoms.2026.01.006

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

ICU留置人工气道患者器械相关压力性损伤风险预测模型的构建与验证

陈鑫钰1, 王志伟2, 杨巩1, 于朝霞1   

  1. 1.新疆医科大学第一附属医院 重症医学科,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011;
    2.新疆医科大学护理学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 收稿日期:2025-02-19 修回日期:2025-04-30 发布日期:2026-02-06
  • 通讯作者: 于朝霞,E-mail: 3679134480@qq.com
  • 作者简介:陈鑫钰（1994-）,女,本科,E-mail: 3690939157@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    新疆护理学会科研资助项目（2023XH026）; 青年科研基金启航专项基金（2023YFY-QKQN-41）

Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for medical device-related pressure injury in ICU patients with indwelling artificial airway

Chen Xinyu1, Wang Zhiwei2, Yang Gong1, Yu Zhaoxia2   

  1. 1. Department of Critical Care Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University. Urumqi 830011;
    2. School of Nursing, Xinjiang Medical University. Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China
  • Received:2025-02-19 Revised:2025-04-30 Published:2026-02-06

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摘要： 目的: 探讨ICU留置人工气道患者医疗器械相关压力性损伤（medical device related pressure injury,MDRPI）的影响因素并构建风险列线图预测模型。方法: 选取2023年1月—10月新疆医科大学第一附属医院537例ICU留置人工气道患者为研究对象。收集患者相关临床资料,采用logistic回归筛选MDRPI的独立危险因素,创建列线图预测模型并进行内部验证。结果: 537例患者中,169例（31.47%）发生MDRPI,logistic回归分析显示,年龄、ICU类型为心脏外科、IL-6、糖尿病史、血管活性药物的使用为独立危险因素（OR>1,P<0.05）,较高得分的摩擦/剪切力为保护因素（OR<1,P<0.05）。基于上述影响因素所构建的列线图模型,校准度（P=0.774）和区分度（AUC=0. 886,95%CI： 0.857~0.915）良好。校准曲线与决策曲线显示,模型一致性及获益性良好。结论: 本研究所构建的ICU留置人工气道患者MDRPI风险预测模型具有较高的预测价值,可为临床早期识别高危患者、制定干预措施提供参考。

关键词: 重症监护室, 人工气道, 器械相关压力性损伤, 预测模型

Abstract: PURPOSE: To explore the influencing factors of medical device related pressure injury (MDRPI) in ICU patients with indwelling artificial airways and construct a risk nomogram prediction model. METHODS: A total of 537 ICU patients with indwelling artificial airways in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January to October 2023 were selected as the research objects. The relevant clinical data of the patients were collected, and logistic regression was used to screen the independent risk factors for MDRPI. A nomogram prediction model was established and internally validated. RESULTS: Among the 537 patients, 169(31.47%) developed MDRPI. Logistic regression analysis showed that age, ICU type (cardiac surgery), IL-6, history of diabetes, and use of vasoactive drugs were independent risk factors (OR> 1, P<0.05), while higher scores of friction/shear force were protective factors (OR<1, P< 0.05). The nomogram model constructed based on the above influencing factors showed good calibration(P=0.774) and discrimination(AUC=0.886, 95%CI: 0.857-0.915). The calibration curve and decision curve indicated good consistency and benefit of the model. CONCLUSIONS: The risk prediction model for MDRPI in ICU patients with indwelling artificial airways constructed in this study has high predictive value, which can provide a reference for clinical early identification of high-risk patients and formulation of intervention measures.

Key words: ICU, Artificial airway, Medical device related pressure injury, Prediction model

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